The Mindset Gap

Lessons from the 2026 SVB Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report

Every year, the wine industry eagerly awaits the temperature check that is the Silicon Valley Bank Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report. This year’s edition arrives at a moment when the industry is exhausted, cautious, and searching for answers.

The headline is this: the steepest part of the downturn appears to be behind us. The data shows that there has been some stabilization. But stabilization is not recovery. And before anyone exhales too deeply, the report makes one thing crystal clear: not everyone will make it to the other side of this, and smart brands are investing in their future now.

What separates the wineries that are growing from the ones that are shrinking? After spending time with this data, I keep coming back to the same answer. It’s not geography. It’s not production size. It’s not even price point.

It’s mindset.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

The performance gap in this year’s data is stark. Top-quartile wineries grew revenue by 22% while the bottom quartile declined by 13%. The median winery had zero growth and is working harder for the same result.

Let that sink in for a moment. Within the same industry, facing the same market conditions and headwinds, some wineries grew by nearly a quarter, while others shrank by over a tenth. The difference isn’t luck. It isn’t location. It’s how they’re thinking about the problem.

High-performing wineries focus outward — on customers and relationships. Low-performing wineries focus inward — on operations and costs.

This is the central finding of the report. Both groups mention the same tactics: events, pricing adjustments, club programs, tasting room improvements. But they execute those tactics guided by completely different philosophies.

And philosophy is everything.

The Mindset Gap

Here’s how the report frames it. High-performing winery managers ask: how do we understand what our target consumer wants and get them to want what we’re selling? Low-performing winery managers ask: with our costs rising, how do we make what we’re selling cheaper to produce?

One question faces outward. One faces inward. And the outcomes diverge accordingly.

I’ve been saying for years that the wine industry has a marketing and visibility problem, not a quality problem. This data proves it. The wineries that are winning aren’t necessarily making better wine. They’re building better relationships. They’re thinking about the customer first and working backward from there.

The struggling wineries are reacting. They’re cutting, discounting, consolidating. And most importantly, they’re compromising. They’re following what the report aptly calls a desperation playbook. And while I understand the instinct — when revenue is down, the impulse to cut is real — the data makes clear that this approach doesn’t lead anywhere good.

As Rob McMillan puts it in the report: efficiency is the permission to play. That’s part of business, but it is not a strategy. It doesn’t make people want to buy wine. Brand building is what makes people desire your wine.

The Discounting Trap

This brings me to one of the most important findings in the report, one that I think gets underappreciated in the broader industry conversation.

Discounting is eroding brand equity. For luxury buyers, sweeping price cuts are a signal that the bloom is off the rose. And the data backs this up in a striking way: high-performing wineries are 60% more likely to raise bottle prices compared with low performers.

Read that again. In a market where the instinct is to lower prices to move inventory, the wineries that are succeeding are raising them.

That doesn’t mean discounting has no role. The report carefully notes that pricing strategy — including selective, strategic discounting — matters. The key word is strategic. Discount shipping instead of the bottle. Bundle products rather than slashing individual prices. Offer a surprise addition to a case purchase rather than reducing the per-bottle price.

The goal is always to deliver customer value without eroding the perceived quality and positioning of your wine. Once that brand equity is gone, it is extraordinarily difficult to rebuild.

Same Tactics, Different Thinking

One of the most illuminating sections of the report looks at how high and low performers approach events. And the difference is instructive.

Low performers are adding events for the sake of adding events. From after-hours social events to increasing ticket numbers and pre-determining the annual event calendar. Whereas high performers are focusing on special experiences and smaller-scale events that build relationships. They’re focusing on meaningful social interaction, holding traveling club events, and focusing on community-driving initiatives.

Both groups are doing events. But one group has a strategy. The other has a calendar.

High performers are explicit and deliberate in their approach. They specify location, event size, and purpose. They’re not just adding events to the schedule. They’re asking what this event is for, who it’s for, and what they want the guest to feel and do as a result. That’s the difference between tactics and strategy. And it shows up in the numbers.

The Tasting Room Isn’t Going Away, But It Can’t Do Everything

The tasting room remains the single most important DTC channel. It accounts for 27% of total revenue and is the primary engine of new customer acquisition. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is the traffic flowing through it. Traffic is down a consistent 2% month over month, with no sustained recovery in sight.

The low performers’ response? Fix the tasting room. Renovate, restructure, lower the fee. Low performers are 2.3 times more likely to cite tasting room changes as their primary strategy. And the data on fee reductions tells a mixed story at best. Of those who lowered fees, only 25% saw an increase in visitation. Nearly half saw no improvement at all.

The high performers aren’t ignoring the tasting room. They’re just thinking about it differently. They’re measuring conversion rates, relationships, and guest satisfaction. More importantly, a growing number of them are building revenue streams that don’t depend on the guest walking through the front door.

They remember that the data also shows that the tasting room is the best top-of-funnel tool for building customer relationships. Approximately 14% of guests return to the tasting room within the first year. And almost a full 10% of guests go on to make an additional e-commerce purchase within the first 30 days. More on that here.

But they also take it one step further: Virtual tastings. Off-site events. Traveling to key markets. Building stronger relationships with fewer customers. Taking the brand to the customer instead of waiting for the visit.

It’s not one strategy. It’s a collection of efforts from wineries willing to try something different. And the results are starting to show.

Retention is the New Acquisition

Wine club performance reflects one of the clearest pressure points in the DTC model right now. Net membership is flat or declining in most regions. Acquisition and attrition rates are nearly identical. Meaning wineries are working hard just to stay in the same place.

The lifetime value of a club member, however, just hit an all-time high at $2,803. The member is worth more than ever. But keeping them is harder than it used to be.

The implication is straightforward. Retention has become as important as acquisition. Probably more important. And yet most wineries are still pouring resources into getting new members while underinvesting in the experience that keeps existing members engaged.

The brands winning this battle are the ones building ongoing relationships outside the shipment cycle. More direct engagement between shipments. More personalized communications. More reasons to feel connected to the winery beyond the box that shows up twice a year.

What This Means for Your Business

I want to be clear about something. The doom-and-gloom narrative circulating in the industry right now is not the whole story.

The DTC channel accounts for more than 70% of revenue for premium wineries. The tasting room and wine club remain the dominant contributors. What’s under pressure is the execution within it.

And execution is something you can control.

The brands that come out the other side of this contraction strongest will be the ones that used this moment to build. The ones that invested in understanding their customers. That held their pricing and strengthened their brand equity. That got specific about their event strategy rather than just adding things to the calendar. That started reaching customers where they are instead of waiting for them to walk through the door.

The industry has adapted before. It will adapt again. The question, as the report puts it, has shifted from “does DTC work?” to “what is next?” The early signals are in the data. They’re coming from the people willing to look outward.

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If you’re reading this and nodding along, or if you’re reading this and wondering which side of this gap your winery is on, I’d love to have that conversation.

Source: Silicon Valley Bank 2026 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report, authored by Rob McMillan, EVP & Founder, SVB Wine Division.

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